coAstAL LiFe Red sky in the morning In the 1979 Fastnet race, 15 lives were lost when yachts were caught in hurricane force winds and what the weathermen called ‘phenomenal’ seas. Bethany Hope investigates how 21st century weather forecasting helped prevent a similar tragedy in 2007 On Saturday 11 August 1979, conditions were perfect for the start of the Fastnet race at Cowes, Isle of Wight. As the race progressed, the BBC’s early evening shipping forecast on 13 August predicted winds of force 7 or 8 it would be an exhilarating ride. No further information was available to seafarers until midnight but meanwhile the weather system deepened rapidly. Three hundred yachts were far from land, spread across the 150-mile stretch between Land’s End and the Fastnet Rock. Overnight, and to everyone’s surprise, force 10–12 winds hit and 15 souls were lost.

In the aftermath of the tragedy, there was a wide-ranging review of general ocean-racing safety. Some of the crews in the storm hadn’t known sea safety basics: they didn’t have a radio to call for help or made the fatal decision to abandon the bigger vessel prematurely for a liferaft.

With an update in Fastnet regulations, VHF radios became mandatory, qualifications for competing were introduced and the number of starters limited to 300.

Most of all, getting accurate and timely weather warnings out to mariners had never seemed so important. What followed meant that offshore weather forecasting was never the same again. ‘We not only know more about impending bad weather but it’s possible for us to give earlier warning of it.’ Jonathan Stanford, Met Office Winds of change The Met Office provided sea current information for sailors from its foundation in 1854. Five years later a tempest off Anglesey wrecked the passenger vessel Royal Charter, with the loss of 459 people. In response, the then head of the Met Office, Admiral Robert FitzRoy rn, created the first gale-warning service. The Met Office now provides a variety of weather services for the UK and rest of the world and the Irish Meteorological Service provides weather information in the RoI.

The first offshore forecast relied on a network of 15 coastal stations, with canvascovered wooden frames in the shape of cones or drums, lit up by lanterns at night.

Crews at sea could tell by the arrangement of the shapes the direction from which gales could be expected.

The invention of the electric telegraph in the 1870s and wireless telegraphy in 1901 were huge advances for the communication of forecasts. In the 1950s, practical use of numerical weather prediction began, with computers fast enough to make calculations from data to produce a useable forecast.

In the late 20th century, technology transformed the world of weather forecasting. Satellite imagery became far more detailed, providing useful information from otherwise inaccessible ocean areas.

Automatic observations of the atmosphere became much more common, while manual observations from ships, aircraft, buoys and balloons are still vital.

Supercomputers at Met Office headquarters in Exeter collect data continually from all these sources and use it to simulate the world’s atmosphere mathematically, going on to predict what will happen next. Although the mathematical model used can never fully represent the complexity of the real atmosphere, it is based on a well-founded understanding of the laws of physics. A 3-day forecast from the Met Office is as accurate now as the 1-day forecast was 20 years ago. The Met Office can model the entire globe’s atmosphere and provide a forecast within 3 hours.

And now the Shipping Forecast The best predictions in the world are useless unless they reach the people who need them. Many of us regularly watch BBC weather presenters, who are Met Office staff and trained meteorologists. Some will also be familiar with the Shipping Forecast, transmitted four times a day on BBC Radio 4 on behalf of the Maritime and Coastguard Agency. A specialist forecast is necessary because winds behave differently at sea from on land. They also tend to be stronger, as the relatively smooth sea surface does little to reduce their speed.

The broadcasting institution that is the Shipping Forecast follows a strict if poetic format, giving a summary of gale warnings in force, a general synopsis and a forecast to specified sea areas around the UK and RoI.

The Forecast is easy to follow, if you know the code and Beaufort scale (see overleaf).

The area-specific forecasts cover in turn: wind direction and speed, sea state, weather and visibility. For example: Dogger, Fisher, German Bight: Northwest 5–7, occasionally gale 8 in Fisher and German Bight, becoming variable 3 or 4. Moderate or rough, occasionally very rough. Showers. Good. ? FASTNET 1979 Unexpected force 10–12 winds hit the fastnet race in 1979 and 15 lives were lost.

Between 6pm 13 august and 6pm 16 august 1979, 13 lifeboats and their crews from both sides of the irish Sea gave 334.8 hours’ service and saved the lives of 96 people.

it was the biggest peacetime rescue operation in history.

here, Courtmacsherry harbour’s Solent class lifeboat offers one of the competitors a lifeline.

Photo: Ambrose Greenway There are now many ways for sea-goers to receive information on the weather, from different forecasters worldwide, by radio, telephone, fax, SMS and internet. Some sailors who race or who travel around the world even have their own private meteorologists and weather routers.

Never has the weather forecast been more accurate or accessible. Sea-goers, whether they’re in a canoe or a superyacht, have up-to-date, accurate information at the touch of a button and can then make decisions about whether to set to sea or seek safe haven when at sea. Checking the weather before you go out can be a lifesaver – and is now a legal requirement. Practise what you preach Weather and sea state information is, of course, essential for the RNLI. The Training team at The Lifeboat College in Poole check the Met Offi ce and Marinecall websites before every exercise. Unlike an operational station, the trainers can choose when and where to go out. In a real-life ‘shout’, the Coastguard contacts the station to request the launch of a lifeboat, but they may not be aware of local sea conditions. It is ultimately up to the local RNLI launching authority, usually the Lifeboat Operations Manager (LOM), to decide whether to launch.

The term ‘all-weather lifeboat’ is to be taken literally. All-weather lifeboats really are designed for saving lives whatever the weather. Stornoway lifeboat station has a Severn class all-weather and they use the forecaster Metcheck.com on a daily basis, for short and long-range forecasts, so the crews know what they’re heading into. Angus MacLeod, Stornoway launching authority, has granted permission for the launch of the Tom Sanderson in a severe gale force 9, gusting storm force10: ‘Sometimes you are extremely worried that you have sent seven men into danger.’ The RNLI gives its lifeboat stations guidelines for the operational limitations of inshore lifeboats. Beyond these, an inshore lifeboat station may decline to launch and perhaps recommend a fl ank station’s all-weather lifeboat for the job instead. Sometimes a pair of lifeboats will launch – an inshore to search in shallower waters and an all-weather to provide safety cover.

Nigel Roper, LOM at Hayling Island, similarly recognises the responsibility of giving permission for the crew to risk their lives for others: ‘As launching authority, it’s important to have in-depth knowledge of your patch and an intimate knowledge of local tides. This, coupled with the information from our local weather stations, will give me a pretty good idea of what the sea state will be.’ In 17 years, Nigel estimates he has refused to launch due to the weather only once. RNLI lifeguards too have to be ready for sudden changes in the weather and sea state.

Their red fl ag warns visitors to keep out of the water in dangerous conditions but, in contrast, forecasts of good weather help the RNLI prepare for busy periods on the beach. Beaufort wind force scale Beaufort wind force scale Beaufort Wind speed Wind descriptive Probable wave Sea descriptive wind scale (knots) terms height (m) terms 0 0 Calm - Calm (glassy) 1 1–3 Light air 0.1 Calm (rippled) 2 4–6 Light breeze 0.2 Smooth (wavelets) 3 7–10 Gentle breeze 0.6 Slight 4 11–16 Moderate breeze 1.0 Slight–moderate 5 17–21 Fresh breeze 2.0 Moderate 6 22–27 Strong breeze 3.0 Rough 7 28–33 Near gale 4.0 Rough–very rough 8 34–40 Gale 5.5 Very rough–high 9 41–47 Severe/Strong gale 7.0 High 10 48–55 Storm 9.0 Very high 11 56–63 Violent storm 11.5 Very high 12 64+ Hurricane force 14+ Phenomenal The long view It’s not just shortterm weather forecasts that prove useful. The Met Offi ce makes long-term predictions on climate change. A possible increase in sea levels and the severity of cyclonic winter storms may mean more work for the RNLI. Demands for lifeguarding may also increase if average temperatures rise.

Long-term weather predictions have already had an impact on designs for lifeboat stations. Sometimes new boathouses are built with raised fl oor levels and in others the RNLI accepts the increased fl ood risk and instead designs the building to accept occasional fl ooding.

? coMe rAin or sHine Hardy rnLi fundraisers will run for the rnLi whatever the weather, but area- and date-specifi c weather forecasts can help them prepare. the Met offi ce offers a talk to a Forecaster service and bespoke forecasts for individual events, so organisers can plan accordingly. Rolex Fastnet Race 2007 In 2007 there was a severe weather warning issued by the Met Offi ce for the Fastnet so, in sharp contrast to 1979, race organisers the Royal Ocean Racing Club (RORC) knew exactly what conditions the competitors would be sailing into. Some of the bigger boats were thrilled at the thought of force 7 or 8 winds and went on to break records but the conditions would pose a problem for some, particularly the smaller competitors.

The race starts at Cowes, Isle of Wight, runs to the Fastnet Rock, County Cork, and fi nishes at Plymouth, Devon. The RORC chose to delay the start for 25 hours, meaning that the predicted bad weather would challenge the boats sooner rather than later. In 1979, racers were caught on the way out in the exposed Irish Sea, far from shelter. RORC Racing Manager Janet Grosvenor well remembers the damage caused. She explains that in 2007, because of the delay, winds gusting to 40 knots hit the boats in the Channel, near safe ports rather than when they were past Land’s End, ‘with nowhere to run to’.

However, some believe that race organisers should have delayed the start another 24 hours, to avoid the bad weather completely. Many small boats were damaged and a few competitors were injured.

Emergency services including lifeboats from Salcombe, Torbay and Falmouth sprang into action. Peter Hodges, Lifeboat Operations Manager at Salcombe, stresses that the RNLI will rescue anybody in trouble without question, but argues that boats shouldn’t set out with such bad weather predicted: ‘The fact that no one was killed was more chance than precaution.’ Cancelling the race was not an option, according to Janet Grosvenor. The RORC fi rmly believes: ‘It’s up to the individual to make a decision on whether to start a race or whether to retire.’ In the 2007 Rolex Fastnet race, 271 boats started the race and 211 retired. But, unlike in 1979, no lives were lost. Most cited seasickness and the state of the sea as major reasons for pulling out but crucial to the decision-making process for each boat was the weather forecast: crews knew that there would be no let up in conditions.

World-class sailor and RNLI Offshore member Dee Caffari’s experience was typical. This extract from her diary at www.deecaffari.co.uk shows how she made a sensible and informed decision to withdraw.

‘I checked the boat and found some areas of chafe on the mainsail that had resulted in some holes and the extra pressure had a knock on effect. While I was repairing what I could of the damage, Mike checked the weather ahead. I had to ask myself if I really wanted to put my seasick crew and Aviva through another hard night to reach the rock? ‘After a chat we all decided unanimously that we could repair the damage now and still enjoy a sail home with reduced stress levels rather than risk severe damage that would be expensive and put us all at risk in the Irish Sea.’ The future There is no doubt that increasingly accurate forecasts will reach more and more people, helping to save lives at sea but, just as surely, the seas and weather around the British Isles remain notoriously treacherous. Furthermore, however hi-tech forecasting is, some humans will inevitably make ill-judged decisions about when and where to go to sea. Lifeboat crews, prepared to risk their lives for the sake of others and equipped with the best of lifeboats, kit and training, will always be called for, whatever the weather. (See page 31 for a review of Left for dead, a graphic account of one man’s Fastnet 1979. Offshore members can fi nd more on weather forecasting and how it affects seagoers in their specialist supplement to the Lifeboat.) .