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Weather Forecasts and Storm Warnings

IT will have been observed, and doubtless with regret by many of our readers, that in the early part of last month (December, 1866) Government notified their intention of, at least for a season, discontinuing the well-known Storm Warnings to the various parts of our coast It is scarcely necessary to state that this procedure is, to a great extent, consequent on the death of their originator ; but as it may not be generally known on what grounds the Government were Jed to adopt a measure which had gained some favourable hold on our maritime population, it is proposed, in the following article, to give a brief sketch of the course of events subsequent to the lamented death of Admiral FiTzRoY.

In our Fifth Volume, Nos. for July, 1862, October, 1862, October, 1864, and October, 1865 (this latter being posthumous), will be found, articles on " Weather Reports and Forecasts," contributed by the Admiral: to these we may refer as rendering, briefly, sufficient information both respecting his general views and processes in relation to this branch of practical meteorology.

On the death of Admiral FitzRoY, the Board of Trade naturally considered that a fitting opportunity then presented itself to " review the past proceedings and present state of the Meteorological. Department," and requested the opinion of the Royal Society —the leading scientific body in this country —on certain general points. The question immediately relating to our present subject is thus put:—" What is the nature of the basis on which the system of daily forecasts and of storm warnings, established by Admiral FitzRoY, rests? In other words, are they founded on scientific principles, so that they, or either of them, can lie carried on satisfactorily, notwithstanding Admiral FITZROY'S decease ?" The reply of the Royal Society (June 15) recorded by the Meteorological, and Wreck on this point is guarded. They state—" The system of forecasting which Admiral FITZROY instituted and pursued has been expressly described by himself as an 'experimental process," based on the knowledge, conveyed by telegraph, of the actual state of the winds and weather, and other meteorological phenomena, within a specified area, and on a comparison of these with the telegrams of the preceding days, so as to obtain inferences as to the probable changes in the succeeding days. The proper test of the efficiency and usefulness of such a system of cautionary signals at the different ports is to be sought in the measure of success which it appears to have attained; always remembering that the system under consideration can only be regarded as in its infancy. . . Respecting the daily forecasts of weather, however, they decline expressing any opinion ;" but they recommend that the storm warnings, having been based on inferences drawn from observations extending over a considerable area, should be continued.

o— * departments of the Board of Trade, with conclusions as to the correctness and utility of daily forecasts and storm warnings.

We confess to feelings of disappointment at several of the results arrived at by the committee, results, it must nevertheless be observed, arrived at by a rigid induction of facts.

It is evident that similar feelings—softened, no doubt, by the knowledge of the untiring and irrepressible energies displayed by the master spirit—actuated the committee when they penned the earnest and generous closing paragraph of their Report:— i " We feel that we should be doing great injustice to ourselves if we were to allow it to be supposed that we undervalue either what the late Admiral FitzRoY attempted or what he effected.

To his zeal and perseverance is due the credit of establishing a system of storm-warnings, which is already highly prized by the seafaring class. And if a more scientific method should hereafter succeed in placing the practice of foretelling weather on a clear and certain basis, it will not be forgotten that it was Admiral FitzroY who gave the first impulse to this branch of inquiry, who induced : men of science and the public to take interest in I it, and who sacrificed his life to the cause." Consequent on this correspondence, which left certain questions in abeyance, the Board j When the multifarious duties devolving of Trade appointed a committee to examine j on the Meteorological Department are on the whole of the data collected by the sidered by the light of this Report, it is Meteorological Department, and to suggest a course of action for the future. Their Report was presented to both Houses of Parliament, in April, 1866, by command of HER MAJESTY.* We may at once briefly state that the views and recommendations of this committee have been favourably received by "science" in this country, and will, it is presumed, in their main features, receive the countenance and support of the Government.

painfully evident how much, when the Weather forecasts .were superadded, the Admiral overweighted it and himself; and that, relying on his great experience as a seaman, the powers of observation he had brought to bear on natural phenomena during his long and varied career, and his natural powers of combining and satisfying conditions which eluded the grasp of less gifted men ; he had, nevertheless, undervalued what we now know to be essential The Report—-which occupies forty-three j towards a comprehension of conditions repages, accompanied with an appendix of quired to even approach the portals of this thirty-eight pages of highly instructive and interesting matter—enters at some length into the history of the Meteorological Department, and into its original, as compared with its present functions. Of the three Darts into which it is divided, one is devoted 10 the Prognostication of Weather in the British Isles, which comprises detailed accounts of the origin of the practice of telegraphing and foretelling weather ; another to the practice of the Department in foretelling weather; and the third to the comvast field of observation and research.

Meteorologists are learning by experience that the weather changes of the British Isles, as over the rest of Europe, result from operating causes spread over a wide expanse, and are but parts of immense systems, extending southward to the region of the tradewinds, whilst they are of unknown extent to the north. Among other causes, the Gulfstream would appear to exercise great influence upon the weather changes which affect England, and to be, as it were, in its parison of Storm Warnings with titcts, as easterly course across the Atlantic, the great breeding-place of those storms which occasionallv burst on our shores with such fury. It is thus evident that a rigorous * The Committee consisted of FRANCIS GALTOX, Esq., F.R.S., nominated by the Royal Society; Staff-Commander EVANS, E.N., F RS., by the Admiralty; and T. H. FAKREE, Ksq., by the Board of Trade.

induction from a wide-spread and numerous body of observations is alone the sure way of arriving at weather science. On this point it has been well observed by an anonymous, but able writer,* that " The very first step and aim of official action should be to take weather forecasts out of the domain of loose conjecture and personal guess-work, and to elevate it into a science of induction.

This alone will distinguish it from vulgar prophecy, and win for it the co-operation of men of science." The committee, in the progress of their investigations, thus refer to the absence of any inductive process for the daily operations of making Forecasts and Storm Warnings :— "Admiral FiTzRov collected, for several years, a number of observations and prepared a number of charts with a view to this special object of foretelling weather. We have made inquiries on the subject of these observations and charts. But we do not find that they were ever carried on or completed so as to bring out clear and definite conclusions, or that their results were ever reduced into the shape of definite rules or principles.

Mr. BABINGTON tells us that he does not think that the grounds on which the Department acts, in foretelling weather, are capable of being stated in the forms of Rules or Laws. . . . Admiral FITZKOT himself has, in his Report of 1862, and in bis Weather Book, indicated certain general conditions implied by the state of the atmosphere as observed simultaneously at scattered stations, and certain probabilities of future weather arising therefrom, and similar conditions and probabilities may be inferred from Mr. BABINGTON'S examples.

That many of these conditions and probabilities are capable of being stated in the form of laws, and that some of them are laws that would be accepted by meteorologists generally, we do not doubt; nor do we doubt that the probabilities are in many cases considerable, and especially in the important cases of sudden and violent changes of weather. But we do not find that these conditions and probabilities have been reduced into any definite or intelligible form of expression, or are, as they now exist in the office, capable of being communicated in the shape of instruction. Were the gentlemen now in the department to leave it, no rules would be found in the office for continuing the duties on their present basis. We have endeavoured to give a notion of such of the maxims or probabilities on which the department acts as we are able to extract from the sources above referred to (see the Appendix at the end of this Article). But we are conscious that in attempting this we may be doing injustice to the practice.

" Under these circumstances, it is scarcely necessary to say that the maxims on which the department acts, in foretelling weather, whatever they may be, and wha' ever may be their intrinsic value, are not shown to have been obtained and established in the department itself by means of accural e induction from observed facts." Space compels us to pass over much that is given in analysis of the basis of the practice of the Department in making predictions, and of the evidence of their accuracy * Edinburgh Review for October, 1865.

and practical utility: the general results can alone be given.

Daily Forecasts.—The data employed were, in the first place, from records kept in the Department for the comparison of daily forecasts with facts ; a portion of which, extending from July, 1861, to February, 1862, was published in 1863. Secondly, from similar comparisons instituted by the Wreck Department of the Board of Trade, and published as a Parliamentary paper in 1804; as also, especially, from those of December, 1865, and for seven selected ports of the United Kingdom for the whole year 1865 ; a part of which latter is printed as a diagram in the Appendix.

The Committee, after giving certain percentages of agreement and disagreement, thus sura up:— « We cannot say that there is evidence that the daily forecasts have been correct in point of fact, or that we are enabled to know what weather will prevail during the next two or three days, and as a corollary, when a storm will occur. On the contrary, the evidence points strongly the other way.

" As regards the utility of the daily forecasts, we have to observe that if there is no sound basis on which they are founded, and no evidence that they have been correct in point offset, they are wanting in everything which can render them practically useful- But even independently of this, we doubt whether intimations of ordinary coming weather, so vague as these forecasts must necessarily be, can be of any real value. If it were possible to tell the sailor in a particular port that the wind, for say twenty-four or forty-eight hours, would be westerly, . . or to tell the traveller that the weather would be propitious for his journey, | these predictions, if correct, would be useful.

But nothing of the kind is attempted. The forecasts indicate, as the department has repeatedly stated, merely the opinion of the department concerning a probability.

" Considering, therefore, that there is as yet no scientific basis of these daily forecasts, that they are not shown to be generally correct in point of fact, and that there is no evidence of their utility, we see no good reason why a government department should continue to undertake the responsibility of issuing them. In this conclusion we believe we are borne out b'y the best practical meteorologists.

But in doing this, we do not wish to put an end to the system of telegraphic communication of weather, or to the publication of those telegrams in the newspapers, or to the publication of the general remarks on the results and bearing of the information." The conclusions here arrived at are similar to those expressed by Professor Dove,of Berlin [in 1865], who has deservedly an European reputation as a meteorologist: " I acknowj ledge that I do not trust myself to an- ! noiince daily probabilities, at least, with | the but limited communications which reach j me telegraphically." j Storm Warnings.—It is evident that the ; committee approached this division of their labours with a due sense of responsibility.

They fully acknowledge the popularity of the storm warnings and their utility. They also instituted inquiries, through trustworthy persons, at most of the principal ports; which ascertained that seafaring men also looked on them more favourably than at first, believed them to be more correct, and would regret to see them discontinued. On this they, however, remark:— " The existence of this feeling is strong evidence of the utility of these storm warnings. But in estimating this at its true value, it must not be forgotten how eagerly the world at large is disposed to base an unreasoning belief on the occasional successes of weather predictions, and how easily it forgets the failures. We need not say that we do not wish for a moment to compare the efforts of the department with the predictions of the ordinary weather prophets who attempt to connect the changes of weather with the stars or the changes of the moon. It is not, however, irrelevant to refer to these prophecies, and to the belief which has so often been placed in them, when we are estimating the value of popular feeling in evidence of the value of the storm warnings.

" There is, however, no need to have direct evidence of their utility, if it can be shown that they are intelligible, definite, and, above all, correct.

These points we have discussed at length. And it is desirable in this place, when specially discussing their utility, to point out some of the practical applications of the observations which we have already made on the subject.

"In the first place, the wants of different vessels with respect to these warnings are not the same. To a ship of war, a powerful steamer, or a large and well-appointed long-voyage merchant ship, the knowledge of a coming gale has a different meaning from that which it has for a laden collier or a fishing smack. To the former, to remujji a day or two unnecessarily in port may be a matter of comparative indifference; to the latter, it is the loss of the small margin of daily profit by which they exist. To the former again, if compelled, as in the case of regular steamers, to leave port at a particular time, it simply means, ' Be cautious ; have your cargo properly stowed, and your crew in order, and be on the look out for bad weather.' To the latter it may be a matter of life or death. The former will only be a day or two earlier or later on her voyage, according as she starts on a given day or not. The latter may, if she waits for the commencement of a gale foretold three days beforehand, lose the opportunity of completing her one, two, or three days' voyage in fair weather, and may even delay just long enough to place herself'in danger. And it must be remembered that the warnings, according to the present system, cover a considerable part of the year. In the six winter months, about 40 per cent, of the days are under warning." Science demands—as indeed do many of the ordinary affairs of daily life—a close scrutiny of alleged facts before determining the exact relations between cause and effect; the facts recorded or acted on require to be cleared of ambiguities either in expression or appearance; the ore, in short, has to be purified of the dross; and hence how frequently it happens that for want of care and precaution in these essentials consequent results are vague and unsatisfactory.

The absence of precision in details necessarily implies absence of precision in results.

Bearing on this, the Report points out certain ambiguities existing both in the Storm Signals and their explanations, rendering it a matter of real difficulty to compare the warnings with the subsequent /acts.

There is of course, as they remark, comparatively little difficulty in ascertaining whether a Storm Warning has been followed by a gale; but there would be considerable difficulty in affirming the correctness or otherwise of warnings of the following nature. Suppose, for instance, the signal has been a south cone, and the wind has changed from S. by W. to N.W., is the signal to be considered as having been correct, or would a south cone under the drum have been an appropriate signal ? (the drum, it will be recollected, indicating from nearly opposite quarters, or more than one quarter.) Or, suppose a gale to range from E. to S., what would be the appropriate signal ? Or, suppose the south cone on Monday to have been followed by a drum or north cone on Tuesday (as frequently happened), what must the weather be to correspond with the warning ? On this is remarked : — *' How seriously these ambiguities must affect the practical value of the warnings, and how desirable it is to remove them, if possible, is obvious.

We now mention them for the purpose of showing how difficult it must be to apply precise tests to warnings which are themselves wanting in precision." Two independent sources of information were at this stage open to the Committee for investigation ; the first, a Digest extending from the 1st March, 1862, to the 31st March, 1865, of all the Storm Warnings issued by the Meteorological Office during that time, with the character of the wind and weather following; the second, a more exact and complete Return than the above, commencing on the 1st July, 1861, provided by the Wreck Department of the Board of Tr de: this return, which comprised the force and direction of the wind at the time of hoisting the signal, and at each interval of 4 hours until the expiration of three days (72 hours), gave a complete history of every gale following a Storm Warning.

On Ihese sources of information the Committee remark as follows :— " Having regard to the want of precision in the forecasts themselves, and to the want of completeness, as well as of precision, in the observations to which we have adverted, we need scarcely say that we can regard any results to be derived from them as approximate only. It is probable that in intimating these results in figures and summing them up, no two persons, and even no one person making the calculation twice over, would adopt the same figures, or arrive at precisely the same results. But we have, nevertheless, attempted to obtain a result in the following manner, and we believe that it is not without its value. The warnings are generally issued for different districts. We have, therefore, treated each warning sent to each district as a separate warning, and have endeavoured from the facts given in the digests prepared in the Meteorological Office, to ascertain whether this warning was followed by a gale, and whether the actual direction of the gale agreed with the direction indicated by the warnings." We have then from the first source the following n suits.

Out of, say, 405 Storm Warnings made between April 1st, 1862, and March 31st, 1865, 305 were right, and 100 were wrong as regarded force, or 75 per cent, right, and 25 per cent, wrong. Including direction of wind, as well as force, 155 were right, and 250 wrong, or as 38 per cent, against 62 per cent. The abstracted annual results, it may be observed, do not show any marked improvement in the three years.

From the second and more copious and exact source we have the following:—Of : 413 warnings made at all places on the coasts between July and December, 1861 ; ; 214, or 52 per cent, with regard to force (i.e. about a treble-reefed topsail breeze), j were successful, and 199, or 48 per cent.

; failed.

Of 2,288 warnings made at all places in the year 1863, 822, or 36 per cent, were successful, and 1,466, or 64 per cent, failed.

The analysis of the whole of these returns by the Wreck Department—a work of great labour—was not continued after 1863 ; but seven ports were selected for the whole of the years, 1863, 1864, 18H5, viz., Aberdeen, Shields, Yarmouth, Harwich, Plymouth, Holyhead, and Galway; and the month of December was selected for the whole of the places warned in the same year.

There are thus two additional and separate analyses to notice. Taking the force of the wind (i.e., a fresh gale or treblereefed topsail breeze), at the seven selected ports we have— Year 1863, of 254 reports of Storm Warnings, 101 or 40 per cent, successful; 153 or 60 per cent, failure.

„ 1864 174 „ 70 or 41 „ 101 or 59 „ „ 1865 236 „ 107 or 46 „ 129 or 54 „ Taking the same force of wind for all places warned in December.

Year 1863, of 366 reports of Storm Warnings, 198 or 54 per cent, successful; 168 or 46 per cent, failure.

„ 1864 85 „ 12 or 14 „ 73 or 86 „ „ 1865 335 „ 213 or 64 „ 122 or 36 „ between S.E. and S.W., or a gale from some quarter in the semicircle from E.S.E. by S. to W.N.W., or a gale commencing at some point in ; this semicircle and afterwards shifting into the other or northern semicircle; and how, if this | latter interpretation is correct, the cone differs j from a drum, it is impossible to understand from : the published notices; and it is, therefore, impossible to make a perfectly satisfactory selection of the facts with which such indeterminate predictions should be compared." | To meet the inherent difficulties of this i part of the inquiry, the two ports of Shields and Plymouth for the three years, 1863, i 1864, 1865, were analysed and put into the form of diagrams, so as to show not only the force, but the direction of the I wind at each 4-hourly period of observa- | tion for 12 hours after the signal had been I hoisted: a similar analysis was made for j the month of December at the widelyseparated ports of Aberdeen, Yarmouth, Harwich, Holyhead, and Gahvay. The From the uncertain signification of the cone and drum signals before alluded to,- much difficulty appears to have been experienced as to the results of the comparison as regarded direction as well as force of wind. The exact definition of the signal of a south cone (point downwards), it will be observed, as given by the Department was, that it indicated a gale from the tropical or equatorial quarter, i.e., from E.S.E. [true] round by south to W.N.W., and that the north cone (point upwards) indicated a gale from the north polar direction, or polar quarter, t. e. from W.N.W [true] round by north to E.S.E.

The drum being hoisted when gales from more than one quarter was expected. Upon this the Committee observes :— " Whether a cone with the point downwards means what laymen and seamen would usually know as a southerly gale—viz., from some quarter results here are not satisfactory, although it is stated that the best interpretation was put upon the official explanation of the signals. Of 244 warnings combining direction with force not more than 22 per cent, were right. The interesting fact was, however, elicited by this analysis of the persistency of gales within small limits of direction, and as a consequence of the unnecessary ambiguity of the signals; for example, following the above 244 warnings, 140 gales occurred: of these, 109 blew within a range of 8 points of the compass, while only 31 gales exceeded a range of 8 points:—157 drum or drum and cone signals, and 87 cone signals, formed the component parts of the 244 warnings.

The Committee naturally consider that the Department did themselves injustice by the wide and vague meanings that were attached to the signals, and further observe that " there mast be something essentially wrong in maxims or methods which led to the use of the drum in so large a proportion of cases." Much stress is laid on the general incompleteness of data existing for comparison of the warnings with the facts; aud on this is stated :— " Our examination is therefore imperfect; hut nevertheless, it leads to conclusions which may be regarded as true, within those limits to which it is necessary they should be narrowed in order to give a general opinion of any value. We have tested the system under numerous independent aspects, and the results corroborate one another sufficiently to justify us, while expressing our regret that we are unable to arrive at more precise conclusions, in giving to the question—' How far are the storm warnings correct?'—the following reply :— " That the storm warnings, so far as they indicate the force of coming gales, have been sufficiently correct to be of some use, and that iheir utility is widely admitted. Also that they have improved; and that they are probably capable of still greater improvement.

" That the storm warnings, so far as they indicate the direction, as well as force of coming gales, are not shown to have been so far precise or correct as to be of use." We ghave now arrived at the turningpoint of the subject; heretofore it would appear that our task has been that of recording failure rather than success, of describing an imperfect and stationary, rather than a well-matured and progressive system; but this would not be a correct interpretation of either the labours of the Department, or of those who sat in judgment on them. The facts are that a wider view of the field of meteorological science has burst, as it were, on us by the results of the system which we no.v look on as comparatively feeble, and retrogressive because stationary. A new luxury has been devised, which lias rapidly become one of the necessities of the day, and we are impatient of reaping all the advantages, whether real or imaginary. But systems based on the observation and inductions of natural phenomena, and especially of those of a varying and complicated character, cannot be matured in a day or a year, or may be, in a generation. The barriers that Nature interposes to man's inquiries cannot be taken by storm. We must, in short, in this department, as in many others of natural knowledge, abide patiently the issue of the labours of many and diverse minds.

Looking to the future, the Committee remark :—.

"It seems to us obvious, that the practice of issuing storm warnings can neither be discontinued nor allowed to continue in its present unscientific, and therefore unsatisfactory, condition.

It can never be satisfactory until we have arrived at a more complete knowledge of the laws which govern the changes of weather in the British isles than we now possess. This subject has of late years become, chiefly through the strenuous exertions of Admiral FiTzRov, the most popular branch of meteorology. It also affords one of the hopeful matters of inquiry to the scientific meteorologist.

" It is obvious, from what we have said, that the Meteorological Department of the Board of Trade does not at the present time possess, and has not the means of procuring, observations sufficiently numerous and accurate tor the prosecution of the inquiry." The Royal Society, aided by continental, as well as by many of our own able meteorologists, had already proposed arrangements for securing the most reliable and continuous observations by the aid of self-recording instruments at a few stations —at present limited to six*—distributed at nearly equal distances in a meridional direction from the south of England to the north of Scotland, the Observatory of the British Association at Kew to be adopted as the central station; and with the possibility that Valentia, now that it is connected by means of the Atlantic telegraph with the continent of America, may These are— 0 , Falrnouth Polytechnic Institution . Lat. 50 9 N.

Kew Observatory of British Association 51 28 Stonyhurst College, already a Meteor*.

ological Observatory .' 53 0 Armagh Observatory . . . 54 21 Glasgow University and Observatory 55 51 Aberdeen University 51 9 hereafter be included. All these stations would work in unison, and form the framework, or backbone as it were, of one general system of observation and record.

The Committee adopt this proposition, and further recommend for the obtaining a " complete account of the diversified phenomena of wind, clouds, and temperature in the British isles," that these stations should be supplemented by a number of intermediate and subordinate ones, say, 60, where observations should be made four times a day (or even eight, at selected places). They say :— " There appears to be no difficulty in procuring such observations: they are already made at lighthouses, at some of which there are understood to be careful and intelligent observers."— "If observations were required from any place where there is no lighthouse, they might, no doubt, be procured through the Coastguard." After some further discussion of general details they thus conclude:— " If these steps are taken, we may hope that at no distant time the laws which govern the changes of weather in the British isles will be so far understood as to enable meteorologists to plan the practice of foretelling weather on a sound basis. * * * " To take the least favourable view of the subject, the knowledge obtained by means of the observations we have recommended will furnish a complete check on such predictions as may be made, and will either enable us to reduce the practice of foretelling weather into a certain system, governed by clear and intelligible rules, or will enable us to conclude that no such system or rules are possible." Our readers are now in a position to judge of the Circular issued by the Board of Trade, notifying the present discontinuance of the Storm Warnings (a copy of which we append). The Circular forms a fitting pendant to this Article, and to the new Meteorological Department alluded to in it, which latter we understand will be organized at no distant period. We cordially offer our best wishes for its success.

[ClRCULAR.] « Board of Trade, Nov. 29,1866.

" The Board of Trade have hod under consideration the report of a committee, appointed by the Royal Society, the Admiralty, and the Board of Trade, to inquire into the constitution and functions of the Meteorological Department, which recommended, as the most important step to be taken, the transfer of the management of the business of the department to a scientific body.

The Board of Trade have also consulted the Royal Society upon the subject of this report, and the President and Council of the Royal Society concur generally in the measures recommended by the committee, and are prepared to undertake the duty proposed to them.

" With regard to the issue of storm warnings, the President and Council of the Royal Society are of opinion that' at present these warnings are founded on rules mainly empirical,' and therefore should not be issued under the superintendence of the scientific body to whom the discussion of meteorological observations will be committed.

The President and Council think, however, that ' in a few years they may probably be much improved by deductions from the observations in land meteorology, which will by that time have been collected and studied. And that the empirical character may thus be expected to give way to one more strictly scientific, in which case the management of storm warnings might be fitly undertaken by a strictly scientific body,' " Under these circumstances the Board of Trade are compelled to suspend from the 7th day of December next 'cautionary storm warnings' which have from time to time been issued by the Meteorological Department of the Board of Trade.

" It is hoped that the warnings may be resumed by the new Meteorological Department at no distant time upon an improved basis.

" In the meantime the daily ' weather reports' will be received and published as heretofore. If at any port or place there is a desire to have these reports, or any part of them, communicated by telegraph on the morning on which they are received, they shall be so communicated on a request to that effect being sent to the Board of Trade, accompanied by an undertaking to pay the expense of the telegram from London to the port or place.

" T. H. FERRER." APPENDIX.

The following maxims were among those employed by the Meteorological Department in determining their forecasts. They are selected and re-arranged from the digest made by the Committee (and appended to their Report), and are here introduced as likely to be of interest and service to our seafaring readers. It is to be hoped that meteorologists will both amend and add to this imperfect list, on which the Committee remark, " Some of these maxims rank among the long-established truths of meteorological science, while others are clearly open to considerable doubt." I.—Atmospheric or Air Currents.

(a.) In the latitudes of the British isles, and of North-Western Europe generally, there are two, and only two, essentially different atmospheric currents—one S.W., running from the equator towards the pole, and the other N.E., running from the pole towards the equator.

(4.) The characteristics of the S.W. current lie not only in its general direction, but in its quality; for it is light, warm, and moist.

In other words, its presence is shown by a low barometer, by a high thermometer, and by a small difference between the wet and dry bulb thermometers.

(c.) The characteristics of the N.E. current, in a similar way, lie not only in its general direction, but also in its quality, for it is heavy, cold, and dry. In other words, its presence is shown by a high barometer, by a low thermometer, and by a large difference between the wet and dry bulb thermometers.

(d.) The weather in this country depends almost wholly on the conflict, combination, alternate preponderance, or alternate succession, of portions of these opposite currents.

(e.) Not only is the actual presence of either current shown by its corresponding instrumental tests, but, an approaching change from one current to the other is foretold by the instruments beginning to change their indications. (Hence, as changes of weather must necessarily commence at some places earlier than at others, there is great advantage in receiving by telegraph information of the state of the weather, and of the instruments at many stations.) (/.) When S.W. and N.E. currents alternately Erevail, the wind blowing over any station as a strong tendency to " veer," and not to "back." That is to say, the general order of the changes is N.E.S.W.N., and not N.W.S.E.N.

II.— Weather Changes.

(a.) Gradual changes of weather are shown by a gradual rise or fall of the barometer; for instance, at the rate of one-hundredth of an inch in an hour.

(b ) Great differences of temperature at the same, or adjacent places, are followed by changes of weather.

(e.) Rapid changes of all kinds commonly presage violent atmospheric commotion.

(rf.) The result of all rapid changes in the weather, or in any of the instrumental indications, is brief in duration ; while that of a gradual change is more durable.

III.—Direction and Force of Wind.

(«.) The wind usually blows from a region where the barometer is high to one where the barometer is low.

(b.) The force of the wind is usually proportionate to the differences of barometric pressure, at adjacent places. In other words, the greater the barometric tension, the stronger the wind, (c.) Strong winds are far more steady in duration than light or moderate winds.

IV.— Gales or Storms.

(a.) Great storms are frequently preceded by excessive meteorological disturbance; as by heavy falls of rain or snow, by much lightnine;, by unusual cold, or by excessive heat.

(b.) Sea disturbance often precedes gales.

(e.) Great storms are usually shown by a fall of the barometer, exceeding one inch in 24 hours, or by a fall of nearly one-tenth of an inch in one hour.

(rf.) The barometer frequently continues high during a N .E. storm, but there is a fall of the thermometer.

(e.) Most of our violent storms travel bodily, in a N.E. direction.

V.— Calm*.

(a.) Calms may be due to either of three different states of weather :— (1) The appulse of winds coming together from opposite quarters.

(2) The divergence of winds going towards opposite quarters.

(3) The centre of cyclonic storms.

The barometer rises in l), and sinks in (2).

It is extremely low in (3).

(b.) When the S.W. and N.E. currents intermingle, water is precipitated in the form of cloud, rain, or snow.